UPDATE 10 am Israel time Tuesday:
At around 10 pm last night an IDF force operating along the Gaza border came under heavy fire from Palestinian terrorists. The IDF did not release further information.
There have been four “pathetic” developments in the last 24 hours:
1. Israel’s attorney general has pathetically declared that the entire Samarian Jewish community of Migron must be razed by one week from today. One can only imagine what will take place in seven days when everything that the Migron community members own will be destroyed.
2. The heads of Israeli universities, unwilling to accept the decision of the Council of Higher Education, have taken the extraordinary and pathetic step of petitioning the Israel Supreme Court to reverse the new “university status” of Ariel–a status that so-called “Defense” Minister Ehud Barak has thus far refused to implement.
3. The Egyptian Army continues to roll into the Sinai–in direct violation of the treaty with Israel.
Israel has been reduced to pathetically asking Egypt to remove its tanks, anti-aircraft batteries, and other heavy weapons–all to no avail.
4. The Jerusalem Police and IDF Civil Administration gleefully and pathetically announced yesterday that over 1,000,000 Muslim worshipers (more than 200,000 a week) prayed at Judaism’s holiest site on the Temple Mount in Jerusalem during the month of Ramadan–more than double the number a year ago because of “relaxed restrictions” allowing younger Muslims entrance.
All of this as restrictions on Jews have been increased to the point that small groups are lucky to be able to go to the Mount for 1 hour a day (and only on 5 days per week).
For the last month, your humble servant has tried to avoid the subject that leads the Israeli news everyday–whether or not Israel should attack Iran’s nuclear facilities.
In just the last week we have had the extraordinary spectacle of the President of Israel, Shimon Peres, declaring that he trusts U.S. president Obama more than he trusts PM Netanyahu when it comes to dealing with Iran. Yesterday it was revealed that Netanyahu has sent his representatives to talk with the head of Shas, Rabbi Ovadia Yosef, apparently in an effort to get him to agree to such a strike. Last night, Channel 10’s respected military analyst declared that Netanyahu and Obama have gone their separate ways on the Iran issue–and that an Israeli strike in October, before the U.S. elections, is extremely likely.
In previous blogs, your humble servant has stated his own views:
1. There is no chance that an Israeli strike will knock out or eliminate Iran’s nuclear weapons program (The Absolute Insanity of an Israeli Strike Against Iran/November 4, 2011).
2. There is a strong likelihood that Iran already has nuclear weapons (Israel and Iran: The Gathering Storm/May 26, 2012).
Today, your humble servant is going one step further and stating that–
*on the basis of the sheer length of time that Iran’s nuclear program has been in operation
*on the basis of recent arrests that were made of arms smugglers who delivered nuclear weapons parts to Iran
*on the basis of the new advanced centrifuges going online at the Iranian nuclear facility near Qom
*on the basis of recently revealed statements that the Iranian defense minister made several years ago to the Syrians that Iran already had a nuclear bomb
*on the basis of Iranian uranium enrichment now having gone 56% (remember that only about 20% is necessary for a crude atomic bomb)
–on the basis of all of these facts and others, there is no doubt that Iran possesses at least one (and possibly as many as 5) crude nuclear weapons–which can be delivered by aircraft or advanced Shahab missiles. And, your humble servant would not be at all surprised if a “dirty” Iranian atomic bomb (in the form of a suitcase bomb or such) has already been delivered to Hezbollah.
And so the question has become: now that the Iranians have nuclear weapons, what can Israel do about them?
Can Iran’s nuclear program be slowed before the Iranians have hundreds of more- refined nuclear weapons? Yes. Can Iran’s nuclear program be stopped? No.
Your humble servant still believes that there is no way for Israel to completely take out Iran’s nuclear capability.
Is Israel ready for an Iranian nuclear attack on Israel? Absolutely not. No one here has even remotely discussed the necessity of having bomb shelters that can protect against radiation and house people for weeks and months on end.
The IDF projection that perhaps as many as 300 Israelis might die from an attack on Tel Aviv is laughable–as is the IDF’s absurd plan to have the population of Tel Aviv to flee to Eilat (where they would be just as vulnerable).
Is Israel ready for Iran’s Hezbollah and Hamas proxies launching tens of thousands of missiles into Israel? Absolutely not. Israel cannot even stop the daily missile fire from Gaza directed against southern Israel; can you even imagine what would happen in the face of an all out attack on Tel Aviv and other major Israeli cities–the Iron Dome and Arrow systems would be depleted of interceptor rockets in the first five minutes.
In sum, if and until there has been a massive government education program of what to do in the case of an atomic attack, if and until there has been a massive building and stocking of “radiation-proof” bomb shelters, and if and until there has been a massive building up of Israel missile defenses, any talk of an Israeli strike by Benjamin Netanyahu or anyone else is sheer folly.
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