10 Observations About The Mini-War

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16 Cheshvan 5780

14 November 2019

The News on the Israeli Street and Today’s Blog

10 Observations About The Mini-War

10:30 am Thursday:

There have been no more missiles or missile alarms since 7:18 am this morning at Netiv HaAsara (already changed–see below). The so-called “ceasefire” which is nothing more than an opportunity for Islamic Jihad to replenish its weapons appears to be holding.

To say that the residents of southern Israel are disgusted with this latest “ceasefire” is an egregious understatement. Once again they have been used as missile fodder in the neverending struggle between Israel and the Palestinian terrorists in the Palestinian state of Gaza.

They know that it is just a matter of time until they will have to go through this absurd process again–and when they do, it will be completely at the discretion of Islamic Jihad, Hamas, Hezbollah, or Iran (or some combination thereof).

Some final observations for this update:

1. Targeted assassination is an effective form of self-defense. Whether we are talking about Baha Abu Al Ata, or the three or four cells of rocket-launching terrorists, or the senior Islamic Jihad terrorist (Rasmi Abu Malhus) who was liquidated last night, the killings of these terrorists achieved their goal.

2. There was an interesting separation of Hamas and Islamic Jihad in this mini-war. In the past, Hamas and Islamic Jihad have fought side by side; this time Hamas tacitly went along with Islamic Jihad, but did not engage in the actual fighting. The obvious inference here is that Hamas was perfectly happy to see Islamic Jihad being hit hard.

3. Following up on point 2, Israel’s attack on Islamic Jihad obviously strengthened Hamas. As we have long pointed out, Israel has ridiculously been looking at Hamas as the “good guys.” However, empowering them more this time around merely ensures that they will be that much harder to deal with next time.

4. Where was Iran in all of this? Supposedly the Iranians are completely behind Islamic Jihad and Hamas, and yet as we have said, Hamas kept mostly out of sight in this round. Exactly how this fits into Iranian strategy is difficult to know.

5. Relatively speaking, there seemed to be less destruction from terrorist missiles this time around. This is probably due to at least three factors: Hamas was not involved; the IAF was more aggressive; the mini-war was shorter.

6. The IAF performed remarkably as always. When it is turned loose, it does a marvelous job of carrying out surgical strikes.

7. On the other hand, the IDF seemed not to have learned some very important lessons from 2015–one in particular. More than once, we saw IDF soldiers and tanks arrayed along the border like sitting ducks. They could have easily been targeted by mortars just like they were in 2015.

8. The government seemed to function as normally as possible given the current state of disarray. PM Netanyahu appeared in command, and Naftali Bennett seamlessly became Defense Minister. Of course, he will not remain Defense Minister very long, but at least he was there for this round.

9. This round of fighting demonstrated yet again why the Joint Arab List Party cannot be part of any government coalition. It only took a few minutes before its members were showing solidarity with Islamic Jihad and calling Israel’s actions “war crimes.”

10. Both Netanyahu and Bennett crowed last night and this morning about how “the equation has changed.” The fact is that it has not. Already this morning, Islamic Jihad was violating the ceasefire, and it (and Hamas) will continue to do so as the mood suits them.

Here we are at 10:53 am, and guess what?
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Incoming missile sirens are sounding, and missiles are falling again at Shukda and Be’eri along the Gaza border.

The new/old face of the “ceasefire”; IDF interceptor missiles being fired a few minutes ago.

It’s now 10:55 am, and we know that 5 missiles struck wounding at least one Israeli.

Nothing has changed.

Numbers as of 7:00 am Thursday:

*593 missiles fired into southern Israel

*0 Israelis killed, 7 physically wounded, hundreds treated for trauma, thousands expected to suffer from PTSD

*20 homes damaged

*24-30 Islamic Jihad terrorists killed

*Untold damage to Islamic Jihad infrastructure in Gaza

We awakened at 6:10 am this morning in Ashdod the same way we have for several days now . . . and the same way we went to sleep at 1:20 am this morning . . . to the sound of loud missile impact explosions.

As I reported very early this morning, Ashdod was particularly hard hit. Hunkered down in our bomb shelter, we had more than 120 missiles (the official, incorrect, number was 93) explode around or be intercepted above our house. It was one huge concussive boom after another for hours.

Apparently a ceasefire was reached with Islamic Jihad which was to begin at 5:30 am this morning, but in the last few minutes, incoming misssile alarm sirens sounded in Yad Mordechai and Netiv HaAsara. There were no warning sirens for what we heard in Ashdod this morning.

This continued launching of missiles after a ceasefire is nothing new. In fact, every time there has been a ceasefire after a mini-war in recent years, Islamic Jihad continues launching for at least a few hours after the ceasefire is announced.

7:18 am: Incoming missile sirens for Netiv HaAsara

Stay tuned to OneIsrael for updates all day long.