Predictions

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3 Nissan 5779

8 April 2019

TODAY’S BLOG:

Predictions

“We will receive the most votes. The president will be forced to ask us to form a government. No one will prevent us from establishing the next government–not the public and not the politicians.”

Benny Ganz speaking on Israeli media this morning

Well, where have we heard this before?

We heard it the day before the election in 2009 when Tzipi Livni ran against Netanyahu. In that election, her Kadima Party did receive the most votes, but Livni was unable to form a government.

We heard it again in 2013 when Yair Lapid of Yesh Atid and Shelly Yachimovich of Labor declared the same thing only to falter badly at the polls.

We heard it again in 2015 when Herzog and Livni declared victory before the election only to have Netanyahu and Likud sweep to victory.

Remembering that your humble servant is probably the worst election prognosticator on the planet and that one should never bet against Netanyahu, I will predict that the Blue and White Party of Ganz and Lapid will indeed receive the most votes and end up with a 2-3 seat advantage over Likud and PM Netanyahu.

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I make this prediction based on the facts that Israelis are tired of Netanyahu, Ganz has run a good campaign, and the smaller parties on the right will siphon votes away from Likud.

Because Blue and White will receive the most votes, President Rivlin will ask Ganz and Lapid to form a government. Whether they can succeed to not will simply depend on one of two things: 

–will Blue and White invite the Arab parties to join their coalition?

If the Arab parties do join, the Blue and White Coalition will be the next government.

–will some of the smaller parties on the right join Blue and White because of plums they are offered in the coalition?

If the parties like Feiglin’s Identity Party, United Torah Judaism, and Yisrael Beiteinu join forces with Blue and White, then the Blue and White Coalition will be the next government.

The above is what I predict.

I desperately hope that I am incorrect.

A Ganz-Lapid government will be a left-wing disaster for Israel. As much as I am unhappy with Netanyahu because of his kowtowing to Hamas, keeping the government in the hands of the “right” is the only way to ensure that the country will not be given to the Palestinians, that Jerusalem will not be divided, and that the movement toward a conservative judiciary will not be thwarted.  

So let’s hope that Ganz’s boasting this morning will go the way of the other boasting in other elections and that Likud voters will awaken from their complacency and get out and vote!