5 Nissan 5779
10 April 2019
The News On the Israeli Street
Palestinian terror in the last 24 hours in Judea and Samaria. . .
A female terrorist on a bus attempted to stab security forces at the A-Za’im checkpoint as the bus was stopped for inspection. The terrorist was captured, and no Israelis were wounded.
A Palestinian terrorist threw a hammer at an Israeli motorist near Ma’ale Amos–badly wounding him; however, he was able to drive for help. The terrorist escaped.
Palestinian terrorists assaulted Israelis with “rocks” and Molotovs at Negohot, Beit Sahur, Mt. Hevron, Tekoa, the Kevis Junction, the Pharmacy Checkpoint in Hevron, Jaba Zurif, Al Aruv, Hawara, Azzun, Jinspot, Beit Ummar, Givat Assaf, and numerous other places.
Palestinian terrorists opened fire at an IDF post at Ya’bad. No Israelis were wounded.
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TODAY’S BLOG:
Netanyahu And The Right Cruise To Victory: An Election Update
PM Netanyahu and the rightist block declare victory.
Your humble servant violated his own rule yesterday of never betting against Benjamin Netanyahu and thereby further degraded his prognostication reputation. I could not be happier to have been wrong.
Nevertheless, here we are on Wednesday afternoon in Israel, and we still don’t know the final vote totals from yesterday. As of this moment, both Netanyahu’s Likud and Gantz/Lapid’s Blue and White Party have 35 seats. However, anywhere between 200,000 and 300,000 votes apparently remain to be counted. These votes were cast by IDF soldiers, patients in hospitals, prison wardens, women in battered women’s shelters, and diplomats overseas. They are supposed to be tallied by tomorrow (Thursday) afternoon.
Those votes could still make a difference.
For one thing, the Blue and White Party could emerge with the most votes.
For another, the New Right Party of Naftali Bennett and Ayelet Shaked could still pass the 3.25% threshold and get into the Knesset–New Right currently is sitting at 3.14% and is about 3200 votes short.
For yet another, the Israeli-Arab Balad Party which currently stands at about 3.45% may well drop below the threshold since it is expected that virtually none of the outstanding votes will be cast for it.
None of the above however will make any difference in who will be the next prime minister. That person will be Benjamin Netanyahu. Even if Blue and White manages to squeak out a one-seat victory over Likud (very unlikely given the fact that Likud may pick up another seat from its surplus vote agreement with United Right), there is no way that Benny Gantz and Yair Lapid will ever be able to form a coalition–especially given the stellar showing yesterday of the two ultra-orthodox parties, Shas and United Torah Judaism, and their already announced statements that they will never be in a Blue and White Coalition.
On the other hand a Likud coalition will have Likud (35), Shas (8), United Torah Judaism (8), United Right (5), Yisrael Beiteinu (5), and Kulanu (4).
It is worthwhile noting that even if Blue and White had received 45 votes, it still could not have formed a coalition without the Arab parties which had previously declared that they would never join Gantz.
Speaking of Gantz, he added another chapter to his book of infamy yesterday. Running to the podium with Lapid yesterday seconds after Channel 12 issued its initial exit poll results which ludicrously showed Blue and White with 37 seats to Likud’s 33, Gantz declared to the world that Blue and White had won the most votes and that he would be the next prime minister.
All on the basis of exit polls, not actual votes.
It was indicative of the same sort of recklessness that Gantz displayed in 2014 in his infamous “anemones” speech when he urged the people in the south to return to their homes before the war with Hamas was over. Tragically, three people died because of that speech.
By the way, Gantz was not alone in his recklessness yesterday. Israeli television networks and international media such as the New York Times were quick to declare Gantz the victor based on Channel 12’s exit poll. When that poll was released seconds after voting ceased, Blue and White headquarters erupted in wild celebration.
By the way, one of the reasons that your humble servant erred in his prediction yesterday was that I thought that the smaller parties on the Right would siphon votes away from Netanyahu. In reality, the opposite happened–just as it did in 2015. In any case, the bottom line is that the Israeli public remains firmly ensconced on the “Right.”
One last note. Before we get too immersed in victory celebrations today, we had President Trump standing on the White House lawn this morning congratulating Netanyahu as a man of peace–and once again talking about how there is “a chance for peace between Israelis and Palestinians.”
In other words, the other Trump shoe is about to drop.
A student from Malawi, who had worked with an Israeli health volunteer in his country battling AIDS, came up to us as we walked down the street in the UC-Davis Picnic Day Parade and wanted to carry the Israeli flag.