14 Elul 5779
14 September 2019
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4 Days Until The Election
The News On The Israeli Street
Palestinian terror in the last 24 hours . . .
In Judea and Samaria:
Palestinian terrorists using “rocks” and Molotovs attacked Israelis at the Yakir Junction, Neve Tzuf, on the road beside Beit El, Deir Nizam, and on the Tunnel Road near Jerusalem among other places.
On the Gaza border:
*A Palestinian terrorist attempting to infiltrate Israel across the border fence was captured yesterday afternoon.
*Hamas and Islamic Jihad leaders have called for a major eruption of violence this afternoon when lunchtime prayers are over.
Further information about Netanyahu’s annexation announcement . . .
According to various reports today, PM Netanyahu’s announcement the other day about possibly annexing the Jordan Valley was originally going to be more dramatic.
Apparently, Netanyahu was going to announce that all of the Jewish communities in Judea and Samaria are also going to be annexed.
So why didn’t he?
Because he consulted with Israeli “security officials” first, and they harshly criticized the move.
Who were those officials?
IDF Chief of Staff Aviv Kochavi, Shin Bet Head Nadav Argaman, National Security Council Chief Meir Ben-Shabbat, and Attorney General Avichai Mandelblit.
All of these argued that should Netanyahu proceed with the announcement as planned, Israel would “suffer damage” in the international community. In particular, Kochavi and Argamon vehemently argued that sufficient assessments of possible outcomes should be made before any such announcement. Another point made by all was that such a move could destabilize Jordan.
In the end, Netanyahu changed his mind and only made the announcement about the Jordan Valley.
It is all flabbergasting.
In the first place, no matter what Israel does, it is always criticized in the international community. In the second place, the IDF and security apparatus have had more than two decades to think about what the repercussions of annexation would be. In the third place, Israel absurdly cannot do anything such as exerting our sovereignty on the Temple Mount, forcing Jordan to pay their fair share for water from the Kineret, or now incorporating Jewish communities into Israel without possibly destabilizing Jordan.
This is simply one more example of how fear, hesitation, and passivity have come to infect our security heads.
TODAY’S BLOG:
The Final Election Polls: Where Do We Stand Now?
As you may or may not know, no polls concerning next Tuesday’s election may be published in Israel after sundown this evening. So as you undoubtedly will infer, every pollster is out with a final poll today.
Let’s take a look at five of them (in no particular order):
1. Poll for 103 FM
Likud 33
Blue and White 32
Arab List 12
Yisrael Beiteinu 9
Yamima (Right) 9
Shas 8
United Torah Judaism 7
Democratic Union 6
Labor 4
2. Knesset Channel Survey
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Likud 36
Blue and White 32
Arab List 10
Yamima 9
Yisrael Beiteinu 9
United Torah Judaism 8
Shas 7
Democratic Union 5
Labor 4
3. Kann Survey
Blue and White 33
Likud 31
Arab List 11
Yamima 9
United Torah Judaism 8
Shas 7
Yisrael Beiteinu 7
Democratic Union 5
Labor 5
Otzma 4
5. Maariv Poll
Likud 33
Blue and White 32
Arab List 12
Yamima 9
Yisrael Beiteinu 9
Shas 8
United Torah Judaism 7
Democratic Union 6
Labor 4
So what are we to make of all of these polls?
Basically, as Yogi Berra once said, “It’s deja vu all over again.”
PM Netanyahu’s Likud Party seems to have picked up some momentum; however, in the above polls, the total number of mandates for the “right-wing” bloc ranges from 56 to 60–in other words, even in the best case scenario, a right-wing bloc falls 1 vote short of the magic 61.
Similarly, the total number of mandates for the “left-wing bloc” ranges from 38 to 43–in other words, even in the best case scenario, a left-wing bloc is impossible without some help.
Where might that help come from?
The two outliers are the Arab List which consistently polls at around 11, and Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu which is averaging around 9.
The Arab List is problematical because its leaders have stated on numerous occasions that they will not support Blue and White because it is led by 3 generals whom the Arabs have accused of all sorts of crimes. However, it may be that the Arab List will “recommend” a government led by Blue and White, but will not be part of its Coalition–whatever that means.
As for Lieberman, he has made it abundantly clear that e and his Yisrael Beiteinu Party want a broad unity government consisting of Blue and White and Likud– and a government which does not include Shas and United Torah Judaism.
On Monday, your humble servant will give you his predictions for the Tuesday election.
A student from Malawi, who had worked with an Israeli health volunteer in his country battling AIDS, came up to us as we walked down the street in the UC-Davis Picnic Day Parade and wanted to carry the Israeli flag.