The Morning After The Election: Where Do We Stand?

18 Elul 5779

18 September 2019

 

 

TODAY’S BLOG:

The Morning After The Election: Where Do We Stand?

UPDATE 9:00 PM

The morning after became the afternoon after and now has become the evening after the election.

And still the votes are being counted. According to the Chairman of the Israel Election Commission, 99% of the votes have been tallied though no official update as to actual vote count has been given since early this afternoon. However, also according to the same Chairman, there are some 250,000 votes that have not been counted because they were cast in unusual places such as hospitals and prisons.

Even though the 99% count is not official, here is the newest unofficial “seat count” for the Knesset:

33: Blue and White

32: Likud

12: Joint Arab List

9: Shas

8: Yisrael Beiteinu

8: United Torah Judaism

7: Yamina

6: Labor-Bridge

5: Democratic Camp

Right Block: 56
Left Block: 44
Joint Arab List: 12
Yisrael Beiteinu: 8

We will find out if these numbers change by the morning, and discuss what the options are for Netanyahu and Gantz.

 

UPDATE 3:00 PM

What seemed like a speeded up official counting process has ground to a virtual halt again. We’ve been stuck on 63.10% of the votes counted for several hours. The gap at the moment is Blue/White 1,029,333 (25.66%) to Likud 1,004,004 (25.03%).

Unofficially, 93% of the vote has been tallied with the result that Blue/White leads Likud by 1 seat–33 to 32.

UPDATE 12:00 PM (Noon)

The official election results are coming in more quickly now with 61.15% reported. The latest official vote totals–including for the first time here the actual vote totals and the percentage:

Blue and White

1,016,384  (26.15%)

Likud

992,243 (25.53%)

Joint List

353,615 (9.10%)

Shas

298,281 (7.67%)

Yisrael Beiteinu

280,655 (7.22%)

United Torah Judaism

248,690 (6.4%)

Yamina

227,923 (5.86%)

Labor

189,581 (4.88%)

Democratic Union

169,715 (4.37%)

Otzma

74,279 (1.91%)

Obviously, the Arab Joint List has made a huge jump in the last hour. All other party percentages are in decline.

UPDATE 11:00 AM

The latest official vote totals from the Central Election Committee. 3,491,496 votes have been counted (54.61%).

Blue and White 27.68%

Likud 27.50%

Shas 8.24%

Yisrael Beiteinu 7.61%

United Torah Judaism 7.01%

Yamina 6.36%

Labor 5.13%

Democratic Union 4.49%

Joint Arab List 3.05%

Otzma 2.07%

As of yet, there has been no revision in projected seats in the Knesset based on the new numbers–though this is the first set of official numbers that shows Blue and White with more votes.

One oddity is that even though the Joint Arab List has been projected with 11 or 12 Knesset seats, it has not passed the 3.25% threshold (though we are sure they eventually will).

Also interesting is that the Democratic Union Party % is dropping as the day wears on.

UPDATE AT 9:05 AM

Nothing has changed in terms of potential Knesset seat numbers since our first update this morning at 7:30 am.

However, Avigdor Lieberman of Yisrael Beiteinu has already made news this morning by making two declarations.

First, he said that he will never sit in a government with the Joint Arab List. This statement alone means that the Blue and White Party will never be able to form a coalition because they just don’t have enough seats.

Second, for the first time he did not rule out being in a government with the ultra-orthodox. What he is demanding (among other things) is that the ultra-orthodox educational system include studies in “core liberal values.” He went on to say that the ultra-orthodox “are not our enemies”; we “do not rule anyone being out of a coalition.”

It is interesting what a difference 24 hours can make.

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Some more observations:

An important item to remember is that here in Israel there are essentially three vote counts being reported:

1. The totally fake exit poll counts. All of the major networks rush to the cameras at 10 pm after every election, and tell us what they predict the final “seat” total in the Knesset each party will have. These predictions are all based on exit polls which as we all know have proven wildly unreliable all around the world–and yet the international media hopped on these polls again last night as if they were reality.

And incredibly, despite the fact that every politician in Israel knows how unreliable these polls are, they still rush to the podium to make pronouncements this way and that. You may remember that after the election back in April, Benny Gantz rushed to the podium to declare victory.

Actually, he didn’t win–as soon became evident when real votes began being tallied.

Oddly, Gantz was back at the podium last night crowing “Mission Accomplished!” despite the fact that his party has apparently lost 3 seats in the Knesset. He said his victory came from stopping the right block from reaching 61 votes. However, he may not have stopped Likud from forming a government.

2. The unofficial vote counts coming out of the Israel Central Election Commission.  These are normally fairly accurate, but they are leaked data and not wholly reliable.

3. The official vote totals from the Central Election Commission. These are the only vote counts that matter. These vote count updates come slowly and irregularly.

The first official vote totals came at midnight last night. The most recent official update just came at 9:00 am:

42.42% of the vote has been counted. Likud has 28.32%. Blue and White has 27.01%.

 

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UPDATE AT 7:30 AM

The short answer to the question posed by the title of this blog is we still don’t know. 

Among the unknowns:

*How many people voted? It will be more than a week before all of the votes have been counted.

For those of you unfamiliar with the Israeli voting system, it is all done with paper–there are no voting machines. A voter comes into the voting station, is handed an envelope, goes behind a privacy screen and puts a slip of paper signifying the party he/she is voting for into the envelope and seals it, then comes out and inserts the envelope into a large cardboard or wooden box with a slit on the top.

Without knowing the total number of votes, we cannot determine with precision what the 3.25% threshold is for entrance into the Knesset.

*What about the “surplus votes”? We still have no idea how the surplus votes will be distributed (remember that in April, it was a surplus vote that pushed Likud ahead of Blue and White; back in 2015, it was a surplus vote that widened the gap between Likud and Zionist Camp.

If you are unfamiliar with this complicated aspect of the Israeli electoral system, here’s a short primer on surplus votes. Before each election, each party signs a surplus agreement with another party. Before this particular election, Likud signed an agreement with Yamina; Blue and White signed an agreement with Yisrael Beiteinu. After all the votes have been counted, x number of votes is determined to equal 1 seat. Any extra votes that a smaller party has (ones that are unneeded after the number of seats are determined) go to the larger party.

*How many challenges will be upheld? Around 70 complaints were recorded at the Israel Election Commission concerning fraud, mistakes, etc.

In any case, as of this moment (7:30 am on Wednesday morning), this is the projected number of seats for each party based on the actual vote count so far (about 40% of the votes have been counted).

These numbers will obviously change during the day:

32: Likud

32: Blue and White

12: Joint Arab List

9: Shas

9: Yisrael Beiteinu

8: United Torah Judaism

7: Yamina

6: Labor-Bridge

5:- Democratic Camp

Right Block: 56
Left Block: 43
Joint Arab List: 12
Yisrael Beiteinu: 9

The obvious p0int is the one we made before the election. Benny Gantz and the Blue and White Party cannot form a coalition without the Joint Arab List.

PM Netanyahu’s best hope for reaching 61 is offering something to the Labor-Bridge Party to bump the Right Block over the top. This seems highly unlikely.

Avigdor Lieberman said that he would be happy to join a “Right Coalition” if no orthodox parties (Shas and United Torah Judaism) are included, but what he really wants is a Blue and White/Likud unity government.

Essentially, we are back to where we were in April. 

A stalemate.

But before we go further, let’s wait for all of the actual vote to come in so we can talk about real numbers–-not the fake ones from the exit polls that all of the Israeli television networks keep foisting on us this morning.

Stay tuned during the day for further updates.