No Official Election Results Yet: Another Day of Updates

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19 Elul 5779

19 September 2019

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TODAY’S BLOG:

No Official Election Results Yet: Another Day of Updates

UPDATE 4:15 PM

There are still no updated official vote tallies though they are expected by this evening. There is no reason to believe that the unofficial mandate total of the two leading parties will be any different than Blue and White 33 to Likud 31.

During the day, Blue and White Party Chairman Benny Gantz has rejected having a meeting with PM Netanyahu to discuss a unity government, and Lieberman has thrown in with Blue and White as expected. Even with Lieberman, Blue and White remains 7 or 8 mandates short of 61.

And Netanyahu still remains 6 short of 61.

In tomorrow’s blog we will hopefully have the final, official results, and we will discuss where we go from here.

Is another election in the offing?

 UPDATE 10:30 AM

By one hour ago at 9:30 am, 187,422 of the 280,000 uncounted votes have been counted. According to unofficial sources, Blue and White has increased its lead over Likud to 33-31.

We stress again that all of this information is hearsay and speculation.

Even if this information is true, it has no bearing whatsoever on the overall “unofficial” mandate situation. It just means that Gantz is now 16 short of 61, and Netanyahu is 6 short of 61. Netanyahu has just called for Gantz to meet him today to discuss a unity government.

 
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UPDATE 7:00 AM

Here’s the situation at this hour:

*There have been no official vote totals and results since yesterday. We are still stuck on 63.10%.  The Chairman of the Election Commission has stated that most votes have been counted, but for some reason the Commission is not publishing those results.

*At least 280,000 votes remained uncounted as of midnight last night. These included the votes of soldiers, hospital patients, prisoners, diplomats, and people who voted at “special access” voting places because of mobility problems.

*Any reportage of mandates allotted to a Party is nothing more than speculation. The numbers we reported here yesterday (for example, Blue and White with 33 and Likud with 32) are completely unofficial and are emanating from the television networks, not the Israel Election Commission.

All of the above could change in an instant should the Election Commission publish results. Hence the need for updates today.

What is abundantly clear at this hour is that neither Benny Gantz nor Benjamin Netanyahu is on the verge of forming a coalition. In fact, just the opposite is true.

If Blue and White emerges with more votes than Likud, President Rivlin will undoubtedly task Blue and White leader Benny Gantz with forming a new government. As things stand now, he will undoubtedly fail.

Gantz and his left-wing partners apparently have around 44 mandates. Where will they find 17 more? 

They would need both the Joint Arab List and Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu to join them, but the Arab List said yesterday that it can never be a coalition partner with Blue and White. And Lieberman said that if by some bizarre stretch of the imagination that the Arab List did join, then he would absolutely not join a Blue and White Coalition.

On the other side, there is no current way for Netanyahu to get to 61 seats. Where he can he find 5 or 6 more? Every party on the left stated adamantly yesterday that it would not be in a coalition government that included Netanyahu as head of Likud.

This morning, Netanyahu has made it known that he would be willing to consider a coalition with Blue and White as long as he gets to serve as Prime Minister first in a rotation with Benny Gantz and as long as the orthodox parties are included. Both of these demands are non-starters for Gantz.

Netanyahu has also made it known that he would be happy to see Gantz tasked with forming a coalition government “so that Gantz can be the first to fail.” Netanyahu’s logic seems to be that if Gantz fails first, then he (Netanyahu) might be able to form a coalition in the aftermath of that failure.

And so it goes at 7:00 am this morning in Israel.

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