What’s Going To Happen Now?

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23 Tishrei 5780

22 October 2019

SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENT

Please note that there will be no OneIsrael blog tomorrow (Wednesday). Your humble servant will be spending the day in and around Hevron–which he will report about on Thursday.

The News on the Israeli Street

Sad news to report . . .

The premature infant, delivered after his mother had died in a car crash 4 days ago, has died. His funeral was today.

Israelis flock to nature . . .

The Israel Parks Service estimates that 1,000,000 Israelis visited the national parks over the Sukkot-Simcha Torah holiday.

Rabbi Nissim Karlitz passes away. . .

Renowned Torah scholar Nissim Karlitz, the 93-year-old leader of the Lithuanian orthodox movement in Israel died today.

A sea of black hats that stretched for miles.

More than 100,000 people filled the streets of Bnei Barak for his funeral procession.

TODAY’S BLOG:

What’s Going To Happen Now?

As you undoubtedly know by now, dear reader, PM Netanyahu gave up trying to form a coalition government today, and returned the mandate to do so to President Rivlin.

Whereupon President Rivlin announced that he will turn it over to Gantz in the next 24-48 hours.

So where does this leave us?

To repeat what we have written repeatedly since the election, Gantz only has 44 seats (Kahol Lavan 33, Labor 6, Democratic Union 5). There are only three ways that he can reach 61:
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1. By getting the 13 votes of the Joint Arab List and the 8 votes of Lieberman’s Israel Beiteinu.

But Lieberman has already said he will not be in a coalition with the Joint Arab List or with the Democratic Union.

2. By getting the 8 votes of Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu and receiving the votes at least two of the parties in the “Right Block” (Shas 9, United Torah Judaism 7, Yamina 7).

But Lieberman has already said that he will not be in a coalition with Shas or United Torah Judaism.

3. By forming a unity government with Likud and its 55 member “right block”.

But Gantz has already said that Kahol Lavan will not be in a coalition with Shas or United Torah Judaism–and will not be in coalition with a Likud Party led by an indicted Benjamin Netanyahu.

So here we are again.

Seemingly, the only possibility for Gantz is to form a minority government–something that has never happened in Israel.

As we noted in a blog two days ago, this would call for the Joint Arab List to recommend Gantz as prime minister but then abstain on votes in the Knesset on laws proposed by Kahol Lavan–in order to please Lieberman. It would also call for some kind of similar accommodation with Democratic Union–in order to please Lieberman.

The problem with this arrangement is that essentially Kahol Lavan would still be faced with 55 votes against any of its proposed legislation. In essence, whether any Kahol Lavan legislation passed would still depend on the Joint Arab List.

But guess what? Part of the Joint Arab List (Balad) announced today that it would not agree to any “minority government” arrangement.

So . . .

Given the extreme left-wing Israel media which desperately wants Gantz as prime minister, one would expect that the next 28 days will be spent speculating about how to make it happen.

We’ll just have to wait and see what actually does transpire.

If Gantz fails, remember that there is another 21 day period during which any Knesset member can try to get 60 other Knesset members to support his or her candidacy. But speculating about this is putting the cart before the horse.