7 Adar 5780
3 March 2020
UPDATE 6:00 pm Tuesday
What we know at this point on Tuesday afternoon:
*97% of the vote has been counted; however, the total has not been officially released pending double checking of polling station totals in order to prevent possible fraud.
*Officially, 64.31% of the votes have been counted with these results:
Likud: 1,210,939 votes (29.33%)=36 seats
Kahol Lavan: 1,085,932 votes (26.31%)=32 seats
Joint Arab List: 536,028 votes (12.98%)=15 seats
Shas: 320,999 votes (7.78%)=10 seats
United Torah Judaism: 255,159 votes (6.18%)=7 seats
Yisrael Beiteinu: 242,218 votes (5.87%)=7 seats
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Labor/Bridge/Meretz: 235,934 votes (5.72%)=7 seats
Yamina: 208,638 votes (5.05%)=6 seats
*More than 300,000 votes—those of the soldiers, those of people who voted at the Corona polling stations, those of people who voted in hospitals, and those who voted at Israeli embassies around the world have not been counted. In particular, the votes of the soldiers may change the “seat totals” above. These votes may not be tallied until Thursday.
*The right block appears to have at least 59 seats, 4 more than it did after the last election in September–putting it tantalizing close to being able to form a coalition.
*PM Netanyahu and other leaders on the right are engaged in a full-scale attempt to entice two legislators who have apparently been elected from the non-right parties to defect and help PM Netanyahu form a coalition.
*Leaders on the left, led by Labor Party head Amir Peretz, have begun blaming Kahol Lavan for the “disaster” and calling for Benny Gantz’s resignation. Gantz announced today that he will take a 2 month break from politics.
*In general, cities in the center of the country gave more votes to Kahol Lavan while cities and towns in the north and south gave pluralities to Likud.
To reiterate, what we do not know at this point on Tuesday afternoon:
*what the final “actual vote” is
*how many seats each party will receive–although the above count is very close
*how many votes=1 seat: this is critically important because of the “surplus votes”. As you may recall from previous elections, major parties tend to gain 1 seat after all the votes have been counted because of “surplus” votes they receive from their affiliated party. In this election, Likud was affiliated with Yamina, and Kahol Lavan was affiliated with Labor/Bridge/Meretz. To this a different way, it is entirely possible that the right block will end up with 60 seats or drop to 58.
We will discuss all of this in greater detail in a few hours when more returns are published.
A student from Malawi, who had worked with an Israeli health volunteer in his country battling AIDS, came up to us as we walked down the street in the UC-Davis Picnic Day Parade and wanted to carry the Israeli flag.