Yom Shnee
Monday
19 Nisan 5783
April 10 2023
The Photo Of The Day
Note the Kipat Ha Sela (Dome of the Rock) in the background.
Will the last Jews be able to come to the Mount tomorrow at 11 am–for 10 days? As we reported yesterday, the government has completely surrendered to the terrorists barricaded in the Al-Aqsa Mosque. Not only have the police given up trying to remove them, but the word is that no Jews will be allowed on the Mount after 11:30 am tomorrow morning until the end of Ramadan in 10 days.
Just think about the message this would send.
And think about what a disastrous precedent it would set.
The News on the Israeli Street
The war in Judea and Samaria.
Shooting attacks:
Palestinian terrorists fired on IDF soldiers in the El Ein neighborhood of Shechem overnight. A regular soldier and an officer were wounded.
Palestinian terrorists opened fire on our forces in Beit Omer.
Palestinian terrorists attacked IDF forces east of Qalqilya.
Palestinian terrorists opened fire on Moshav Yafit (in the Jordan Valley).
A run-over attack:
A Palestinian terrorist ran over a policeman at the Ali Junction. The policeman is listed in “moderate” condition this morning. The terrorist escaped/
IED, Molotov, and “rock” attacks:
Palestinian terrorists attacked a bus on the Gush Etzion-Hevron Road sough of the Karmi Tzur Junction, and motorists on Road 55 in the Nabi Elias Bypass, between the Post Office Junction and Ras Carchar, north of Ofra, and at a myriad of other locations.
TODAY’S BLOG
Israel’s Doomsday Scenario
This morning Dr. Mordechai Kedar, an analyst that your humble servant deeply respects for his vast knowledge and acumen, published an assessment that we are on the verge of a combined attack Iranian attack on Israel.
He begins by listing the forces arrayed against us:
“In Lebanon: Hezbollah and Hamas with many thousands of missiles and UAVs [approximately 200,000], some of them accurate.
In Syria: 17 combat units (“militias”) armed and ready: Fatimiun, Zinbioun, Nujabaa’, Hezbollah, Abu Al-Fachal Brigade, Atsa’ab Ahl al-Haq, Khorsani Brigade, and more. Iran has transferred to Syria a very large number of missiles and UAVs and these are ready to be launched.
In Iraq: dozens of militias, armed with missiles and UAVs.
In Yemen: the Houthis, who have missiles and long-range UAVs that reach Israel.
In Gaza: Hamas and Islamic Jihad with missiles capable of disabling the Israel Defense Forces and Air Force bases.
No attack will originate from Iranian soil.”
Kedar proceeds to give his assessment of how the attack will unfold:
“Under the pretext of the duty of the Muslim world to save the Al-Aqsa Mosque from the Israeli occupation and oppression, Iran will conduct a staged, comprehensive, integrated and coordinated attack on Israel. The first phase will be a shower of missiles and UAVs from all the aforementioned arenas together, and the Iranian estimate is that the stock of interceptors of the “Iron Dome” will run out within two to three hours from the start of the air attack, after which the Israeli skies will be open and the air force will be damaged and grounded.
[This first air phase] will be accompanied by a cyber attack on Israeli infrastructure systems.
After a full day of a cyber attack and a rain of missiles and UAVs that will hit air force bases, navy bases, army bases, electricity, computing, communication, road and water infrastructures . . .”
Kedar then describes the second phase:
“. . . The second phase will begin: a coordinated ground attack from Lebanon, Syria and Gaza by infantry, mounted forces on dirt bikes and ATVs, equipped with anti-tank weapons; they will cross the obstacles and attack the Israeli ground forces in order to reach Jewish settlements as quickly as possible.
The calculation of the Iranians is that the mobilization of the reserves will take several days and at most will be partial because of the mess that will be created throughout the country. IDF reinforcements will not arrive in time to the various fronts and therefore the regular forces will collapse within hours in the face of the ground attack as happened at the Suez Canal and in the Golan during the Yom Kippur war.
The invasion of ground forces from Syria, Lebanon and Gaza will focus on Israeli settlements with the aim of demoralizing the Israeli public and forcing the government to surrender in order to save the lives of the many Israelis who will be captured by the Arab and Iranian militias. The Israeli media and especially the social media groups will increase the panic among the Israeli public.”
Kedar says this insofar as the Palestinians in Judea, Samaria, and Israeli-Arabs in the Galilee and Negev are concerned:
“. . . it is likely that Hamas and the Palestinian Authority will push them to do everything in their power to harm Israelis, the army, the police and civilians moving on the roads, in addition to attacks on settlements and military bases.
Also, the Iranians expect Arabs in the Galilee and Negev to carry out actions against the IDF and the state such as blocking roads, damaging bridges, spilling oil on roads, blocking intersections, damaging high voltage lines and attacking Jewish settlements. (“Guarding Walls in a Square”) Because the National Guard is not operational yet, these actions will cause great damage to Israel.”
Dr. Kedar has already been roundly criticized this morning by the defense establishment, but in my opinion, his analysis is highly credible; here at OneIsrael, we have long stated the opinion that Israel simply doesn’t have the resources to fight a war on multi-fronts–or even just on the Hezbollah front without resorting to weapons of mass destruction.
Israel’s multi-layered missile defense system will simply not stand up to an attack from 200,000+ missiles. In recent wars with Gaza, we have run short of Iron Dome interceptor missiles in an attempt to intercept “a mere” 10,000 missiles. Not to mention the fact that Israeli-Arab truck drivers refused to move our tanks to the Gaza border, and the fact that military vehicles were assaulted when they passed through many Israeli-Arab towns.
A student from Malawi, who had worked with an Israeli health volunteer in his country battling AIDS, came up to us as we walked down the street in the UC-Davis Picnic Day Parade and wanted to carry the Israeli flag.