The IDF’s Egregious Miscalculation

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Yom Shleeshee

Tuesday

24 Sivan 5783

June 13 2023

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The News on the Israeli Street

The war in Judea and Samaria.

Molotov, “rock”, and IED attacks:

Palestinian terrorists attacked Israelis on the Hossan Bypass between Al Khader and the Beitar Junction, near the Tunnels Checkpoint between Jerusalem and Gush Etzion, near the Gush Etzion Junction, and at a myriad of other places.

The big vote tomorrow . . .

Tomorrow, the big vote is scheduled in the Knesset to choose the two members of the Knesset who will be on the next Judicial Selection Committee. There is no way to know from the political reportage here what is going to happen.

Already, the Coalition has given in to the Opposition by keeping the basic Committee composition the same: 9 members consisting of:

*the Minister of Justice (who serves as the Committee Chair)

*Another cabinet minister in the government

*3 Supreme Court Justices (the President of the Court and two more)

*2 members of the Israel Bar Association

*2 Knesset members 

The last category, the two Knesset members, will be chosen by a vote in the Knesset tomorrow.

Traditionally, one member chosen is from the government, and the other is from the Opposition.

However, this time around, there is a strong push within the government to drop the Opposition member, and choose both members from the government.

Failure to include an Opposition Knesset member may spell the end of the already floundering negotiations taking place at the President’s House.

On the other hand, even if both Knesset members chosen are from the government, the leftists (3 Supreme Court Justices + 2 Bar Association members) will still have committee control–though 7 votes are required to choose a judge or Justice.

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TODAY’S BLOG

The IDF’s Egregious Miscalculation

Last Shabbat, we posted a photo of the jet trails over Netanya which were left following the end of an IDF exercise.

The purpose of the exercise was to anticipate what an attack from Iran and its proxies in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Gaza would look like and how the IDF would respond.

According to the less-than-genius planners in the IDF General Command, the estimates are:

*Most of the missiles would strike in northern Israel around Haifa. It is estimated that 3000 would be fired from Lebanon alone in the first few days.

*About 100 civilians would be killed, and another thousand would be wounded.

*There would be “1000 sites of destruction” including electrical and water infrastructure as well as IDF bases and population centers”.

*Approximately 50 communities within 5 km of a border would have to be evacuated to evacuee centers in the Arava, Dead Sea area, the Bekaa, and Eilat.

In your humble servant’s opinion, the IDF estimates are egregiously understated.

Yes, most missiles would be fired from Hezbollah in Lebanon, but 3000? Hezbollah has an arsenal of at least 150,000-200,000 missiles. We could easily expect a minimum of 5,000 a day. At the same time, we could expect another 3,000 from Gaza–we have already seen this number in previous mini-wars.

Yes, Haifa would be hit, but you have to believe that Tel Aviv will be in the crosshairs. Each city is a target-rich target where hundreds of civilians could be easily killed in missile strikes. 100 civilians? More likely, we would see thousands dead and wounded.

Yes, there would be a thousand sites of destruction, but more likely, there would be thousands–with every major Israeli asset hit.

On the subject of evacuation, can you even imagine the chaos of trying to evacuate 50 communities with missiles falling all around? Not to mention the fact that every evacuee center would be targeted. Wouldn’t it be wiser to build up and fortify shelters in advance of an attack rather than depend on evacuation?

As war with the Iranians and their proxies comes ever closer, one wonders how prepared Israel and IDF really are.

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