The Gaza War: Day 47 . . . The War in the North

Yom Reva’ee

Wednesday

9 Kislev 5784

November 22 2023

UPDATE 7:00 PM

“Significant Flexibility”

In an earlier update, I wondered what would happen if HamISIS breaks the ceasefire either by shooting at our soldiers or firing missiles at Israel.

Now we have the news that “Israel is expected to show significant flexibility and not to blow up the agreement for every violation.” In other words, we are supposed to do nothing. 

Unbelievable.

Missiles and Mortars in the South So Far Today

Nir Am (17:51); Kfar Aza (16:51); Kissufim (16:14); Pri Gan, Nir Yitzhak, Sufa (15:02); Netiv HaAsara, Nir Am, Sderot, Ashkelon (13:40); Ein Hashlosha (13:20); Nir Am (10:58); Nir Am, Sderot, Kfar Aza (10:52); Kfar Aza, Nahal Oz, Saad (07:18); Sderot, Nir Am (07:00)

Aircraft interception: Eilat (16:06)

Missiles and Mortars In the North So Far Today

Hermon, Upper Galilee (17:01); Hanita, Idmit (15:41); Zarit (13:20); Netua (12:12); Rosh HaNikra (10:58)

UPDATE 4:00 PM

More Details From the Hostage Agreement

It turns out that almost certainly, the terrorist release list was formulated by HamISIS head Yahya Sinwar, and the meticulous Sinwar chose his terrorists carefully and demanded that each terrorist be released to his or her place of residence.

72 of the terrorists now scheduled to be released are from eastern Jerusalem, and despite whatever our craven government says, many of them have “have blood on their hands” and have openly sworn to continue trying to murder Israelis if they ever get released. Some have even said that they want to become suicide bombers.

How many more Israelis will be murdered because we let Sinwar get what he wanted?

Speaking of Sinwar

Sinwar is the Arab world’s newest hero. Not only did he direct the massacre of Israelis on October 7, but also he has eluded Israel ever since.

It makes no difference that northern Gaza has been largely devastated and thousands of his terrorists have been killed; Sinwar has accomplished what he said he always wanted to–the release of Palestinian prisoners.

UPDATE 12:00 PM

As usual, the devil is not only in what is initially seen; it is also in the details.

Here are a few of details that Israel has signed on to:

*Even though the ceasefire is for 4 days; the government states that the ceasefire will not last longer than 10 days without a re-approval from the government.

[Did you get that? We are already tacitly agreeing to a 10 day ceasefire.]

*Israel agrees that no military vehicles or equipment will be moved into any part of Gaza for the duration of the ceasefire.

[Did you get that? No tanks, no APCs . . . no IDF support vehicles into Gaza]

*Israel agrees that there will no air traffic over southern Gaza for four days; in northern Gaza, Israel agrees there will be no air traffic between 10:00 am and 4:00 pm each day of the ceasefire.

[Hmm. Let’s see. When do you think HamISIS will reposition its terrorists?]

*Israel agrees that during the ceasefire there will be no attacks and no arrests in Gaza.

[For all intents and purposes, Israel seems to have given HamISIS a carte blanche to attack us with impunity.]

*The government claimed that part of the deal was that the Red Cross was to be able to pay visits to the hostages who are not released. That statement is not in the agreement document.

[It is simply outrageous that Israel agreed to go forward with this deal without having HamISIS provide a complete list of every hostage and his or her condition].

*Our government’s statement that no terrorists will be released with “blood on their homes” is a complete fraud. Numerous prisoners on the release list are terrorists who stabbed, shot, and ran over soldiers and civilians. To the Netanyahu government, no blood on their hands means that their victims did not die. It is also beyond belief that the terrorists are being released “to their place of residence.”

Order of Release

Tonight, Wednesday, HamISIS will release a list of the first 10 hostages to be released.

Between 6:30-7:00 tomorrow morning, Thursday, the IDF will cease fire.

In the morning, the hostages will be transferred to us via the Red Cross.

In the afternoon, the first group terrorists will be released to their place of residence.

The same pattern will be repeated on Friday and Saturday.

On Sunday, 20 hostages be released–and the requisite number of terrorists will be released.

UPDATE 8:00 AM

So, it is a done deal.

Almost exactly along the lines of what we wrote last night:

*HamISIS will release of 50 women and children “live” hostages who have an Israel identity card. This morning we have the additional news that specifically 30 children, 8 mothers, and 12 older women will be released. Possibly, HamISIS will release several more women who are American citizens.

*Israel will release 140 Palestinian prisoners–female and “minor children” (older teenagers). The only prisoners released will supposedly be those with “no blood on their hands.”

*The hostages and prisoners will be released in groups (supposedly around 12-13 hostages per day) during a 4 day “truce” (aka ceasefire).

*The truce (aka ceasefire) may be extended–1 day for each 10 hostages and presumably more Palestinian prisoners.

*Israel agrees to bring 300 trucks of humanitarian aid per day, as well as fuel for hospitals

*Israel agrees to stop gathering intel from the air (via drones and aircraft) for 6 hours every day of the truce.

—

The government agreed to this deal last night after extended discussions. The decision was not unanimous; members of the Otzma Yehudi Party led by National Security Minister Ben Gvir voted against it.

However, there was never any question that the deal would be approved, and if you lived here in Israel, you would know why. Every neighborhood, every freeway overpass, virtually every building contains large displays of those who were kidnapped. Every television show has been consumed with stories about the kidnapped and pleas for their release by their loved ones. Combine that with demonstrations in the street and marches in every direction meant that the government was under tremendous pressure to agree.

Having said this, let’s discuss a few of the reasons that this was a bad deal, a very bad one.

1. The concept on which the deal is based is immoral. We are releasing convicted terrorists who tried to kill Israelis; they are releasing innocent babies, children, mothers, and elderly women. 

2. The concept is deeply flawed. How did it ever happen that Israel started agreeing to disproportionate exchanges? 1 of ours for 3 of theirs? The worn-out Israeli mantras that “we value life more than they do” and “the lives of our people matter more to us than the lives of the enemy matter to them” should be thrown out the window.

3. The ceasefire–and that’s what it is–exposes our soldiers to massive risk. Not only does HamISIS have time to regroup, it has time to send its terrorists through tunnels to the precise points where they can come out and ambush our troops when the ceasefire is over. This is made even more likely by our agreement to suspend surveillance flights over Gaza for 6 hours a day.

4. Despite everything that the IDF command says, the ceasefire destroys IDF momentum. Our brave soldiers who were marching their way through Gaza have just had the air let out of their tires. Now they are stuck in place–again, like sitting ducks. In fact, by dribbling out hostages 10 at a time, HamISIS may be able to keep a ceasefire in place for almost a month.

Here at OneIsrael, we will be just as happy as everyone else when we see the hostages finally coming home. It will be an exhilarating moment for all of Israel. But more than likely, we have started down a slippery slope and will look back on this agreement as the beginning of the end of the idea with which we began this war: “Hamas will be destroyed.”

Two last thoughts:

1. Obviously, there is no ceasefire on the northern border or at any other confrontation point such as in the Red Sea or in Judea and Samaria.

2. What will it take to break the ceasefire? What if HamISIS fires a mortar at Nahal Oz? Or a missile at Ashkelon? Or opens fire on our troops in Gaza?