Tuesday
Yom Shleeshee
25 Cheshvan 5785
November 26 2024
UPDATE 8:00 AM ISRAEL TIME
The View from Ashdod
It is easy to criticize the impending agreement between Israel and the U.S. which will bring about a 60 day ceasefire with Hezbollah.
However, before we do that, let’s discuss some extremely relevant reasons to support such an agreement:
1. The reserves and the comcomitant social impact. Many of our reservists–-who constitute the majority of forces on the ground in southern Lebanon–have now been in the field since October 7, 2023.
Their being there has had a extremely negative effect on their families with wives and children separated from their loved ones. In addition, many of the reservists and their families have suffered devastating economic consequences with their businesses going out of business as well as diminished income from not being able to continue their jobs.
2. Resupply. Not only do the reservists badly need R and R, but also there is apparently a significant need to “refresh” dwindling IDF supplies in the north.
3. The economy. With each day that the wars both north and south continue, the country goes deeper into debt. Israel’s credit rating has already taken multiple hits. Many sectors of the economy such as agriculture and tourism have been ravaged.
4. The weather. Winter has arrived in the north. Mt. Hermon and the surrounding areas are covered with snow this morning. Obviously, wintry weather conditions are not optimal for fighting.
5. Gaza. The war in the north has been at the forefront of the news lately, but the battles in Gaza continue with the IDF suffering significant losses of late, especially in Jabaliya. There is no doubt that pulling IDF divisions out of the Gaza fighting and sending them into southern Lebanon has been detrimental to the war effort in Gaza.
6. The Biden factor. The Bidenites are already stalling delivery on numerous weapons systems, not the least of which are heavyweight bombs and Apache helicopters. There is no reason to believe that the resupply will take place before President-elect Trump reassumes office on January 21. Not only weapons, but also Biden’s political support as expressed in the U.N. Security Council is beginning to wane, and there have been recent indications that the U.S. would support a ceasefire resolution–even one detrimental to Israel’s interests.
7. What’s next? The IDF and IAF have performed magnificently–wiping out the entire Hezbollah hierarchy, killing thousands of Hezbollah terrorists, and destroying tens of thousands of Hezbollah installations. And yet the missile and drone attacks continue and even intensify with 300 being launched into Israel just two days ago. Short of occupying parts of Lebanon, what else can Israel do at this point?
What is in the Agreement?
- A two month (60 day) ceasefire during which the IDF would withdraw completely from Lebanon, and Hezbollan concomitantly would withdraw to north of the Litani River (18 miles from the border with Israel). Israel will not set up a buffer or security zone inside of Lebanon.
- As these withdrawals are taking place, the Lebanese Army will deploy thousands of soldiers to join the UNIFIL UN forces already there. The Lebanese Army would focus on dismantling Hezbollah assets south of the Litani.
- As these withdrawals are taking place, Lebanese civilians will be allowed to return to their villages and towns in southern Lebanon.
- A five-country monitoring committee headed by the U.S. and including France will be set up.
Those are the four basic features among numerous others which will undoubtedly become clearer in the coming days. What is obviously missing is any talk of implementation and violations.
However, outside of the Agreement, the U.S. will give Israel a “side letter” in which it states clearly that Israel has the right to act in southern Lebanon whenever it knows of “an immediate threat.”
But this “right to act” is extremely convoluted.
If Israel sees that Hezbollah or Lebanon is breaching the agreement:
–Israel will report the violation to the U.S.
–the U.S. will then determine if there is a violation.
–if the U.S. agrees, it will ask the Lebanese government to correct the problem.
–then if the problem is not corrected in a “reasonable” amount of time, Israel can respond.
A blind person can see the multitude of problems with this scenario.
Finally, the obvious problem with the entire agreement is that Hezbollah, UNIFIL, the Lebanese government, the monitoring counties (esp. the French), and the Biden Administration cannot be trusted.
One last piece of news this morning: the government has announced that even if a ceasefire is agreed to, residents of the northern communities will not yet be allowed to return to their homes–for the precise reason that none of the non-Israel parties in the Agreement can be trusted.
The Israeli Cabinet will vote this afternoon on whether to go along with the Agreement or not.
Already, the communities in the North are expressing their opinions such as this:
“Netanyahu is making a grave mistake, he is abandoning us like ducks on the range. Disaster is written on the wall. Hezbollah has not been hit enough. We must not stop. We must continue. Why did we leave our homes for a year and a month? All of our military achievements will go down the drain.”
Benny Ben Mobacher, head of the Hermon Council.
A student from Malawi, who had worked with an Israeli health volunteer in his country battling AIDS, came up to us as we walked down the street in the UC-Davis Picnic Day Parade and wanted to carry the Israeli flag.