Election Update: The Buve Man, The Hashmali, and the Ozerit

UPDATES

6:00 am Israel time, Friday, February 13 2015

31 Days Until The Election

***Elie Wiesel has added his name to a small but growing number of people who are supporting PM Netanyahu’s speech before the U.S. Congress on March 3. In an upcoming advertisement in the New York Times, Wiesel asks: “Will you join me in hearing the case for keeping weapons from those who preach death to Israel and America?”

Thus far, 18 House members (out of 435) and 3 Senators (out of 100) have indicated they will not attend. Nine of the House members who are boycotting are African-American members of the Congressional Black Caucus. 2 of the 3 Senators are from Vermont, and the other is from Obama’s home state of Hawaii.

To put all of this in a different way, for all the talk about a congressional boycott of Netanyahu’s speech, only 3.9% of lawmakers have indicated they will not attend.

In a related development, the leftist Attorney General of Israel, Yehuda Weinstein, has surprisingly rejected an attempt by the parties on the Israeli Left to keep Netanyahu’s speech off of Israeli TV.

***The seemingly endless 12 year Rachel Corrie saga finally came to a close yesterday with the Supreme Court rejecting the final appeal of Corrie’s parents. As you know doubt remember, Corrie became an international celebrity when she was run over by an IDF bulldozer near Gaza and killed. Her parents subsequently sued the Israel government, but were rejected at every turn by the evidence that Corrie was in a war-zone and had intentionally put herself in danger.

A secondary lawsuit regarding a tissue sample (unrelated to the cause of her death) taken from the autopsy done on Corrie remains open.

***A 35-year-old orchard worker was shot to death yesterday. Standing at a major intersection, the man threw rocks at passing cars. Within minutes, security personnel were on the scene and three policemen fired 5 shots at the “rock” thrower. When the suspect took a “rock” out of his pocket and motioned as if he was going to throw at the policemen, they shot him 8 times and killed him.

By the way, this incident did not occur in Israel. It occurred in Pasco, Washington in the United States.

The next time you hear about a terrorist “rock” throwing incident in Israel, think about the extraordinary lengths that Israeli security personnel go to NOT to shoot Palestinians.

TODAY’S BLOG:

It’s Friday again, and only about a month to go before election day here in Israel. As we do each Friday, we take a look at the most recent polls, and try to figure out which way the wind is blowing.

And it seems from all the recent polls that it is blowing in the same direction as last week–trending to the right. There are a few polls out there that have Likud and “Labor/Hatnua” running neck and neck, but most of the polls have Likud ahead by as many as 3 seats.

There are reports of severe discord in the ranks of Labor/Hatnua, and Herzog and Livni have brought in new advisors to try to kickstart their campaign.

Since neither Likud nor Labor/Hatnua is likely to exceed 28 seats, it is the smaller parties who should receive most of our attention.

Name of party: political ideology (latest poll average): direction moving

Jewish Home: right (latest poll average 12): trending slightly higher

After a disastrous couple of weeks which saw the party’s projected number of seats plummet from 18 to 11, it appears that Naftali Bennett is back on course with a bus tour across Israel and an aggressive attack on his critics.

United Arab List: left (latest poll average 12): holding steady

No changes here. All of the UAL candidates are actively campaigning and trying to get Israeli-Arab voters to the polls on election day; Arab apathy is the biggest problem facing the UAL.

Yesh Atid: center-left (latest poll average 10): trending slightly downward

After a mini-surge last week that saw Yair Lapid’s party jump from 9 seats to 11 in the polls, Yesh Atid has dropped slightly.

Shas: Sephardic Orthodox–center right (latest poll average 8): trending slightly upward

This weeks looks better for Shas. Remember that after the internecine warfare between Eli Yishai (who left to form Yachad) and Aryeh Deri, the number of projected Shas seats fell to 7.

Koolanu: center-right (latest poll average 8): holding steady
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This low number of projected seats continues to surprise your humble servant. Kahlon is popular in Israel and he has added stellar names to his list. However, he lacks a certain charisma that would lead to more seats.

United Torah: Ashkenazi Orthodox–center right (latest poll average 8): holding steady

Nothing new here.

Yisrael Beiteinu: center-right (latest poll average 6): trending slightly upward

Has support for Lieberman begun to reverse course following all of the scandals swirling about him?

Meretz: left (latest poll average 5): trending downward

What is going on here? From a high water mark of 8 projected seats a month ago, Meretz is beginning to flirt dangerously close to the 4 seat threshold. Where are potential Meretz voters moving to? Perhaps to Labor/Livni? Perhaps to the United Arab List? It is not clear.

Yachad: right (latest poll average 5): trending upward

The decision by the Election Commission yesterday (still subject to appeal to the Israel Supreme Court) to disqualify Baruch Marzel will have a negative effect on this trend. Marzel, a powerful voice on the right, is attracting many voters to Yachad.

So what are we left with?

There are approximately 50 seats projected for Labor/Livni and parties that have ruled out any coalition with Netanyahu.

There are approximately 70 seats projected for Likud and parties that have indicated they would join a Netanyahu coalition.

One thing that the parties on the Right must guard against is apathy among their base–an apathy that will keep voters at home.

As reported last Friday, your humble servant has returned to Israel for the elections and has been carrying out an informal survey among workers who have come to his house.

Our first problem this week was a clogged pipe which had to be cleared by the buve man (the man who unclogs sewage pipes). When I asked buve man (about 55 years old) how he was going to vote in the election, he replied “I’m not voting.”  When I asked him why, he said, “I am from the right, but Netanyahu will immediately bring Herzog and Livni into a unity government so why should I vote?”

Our next problem was an electrical short that blew out several outlets in our home. When I asked the hashmali (an electrician in his 50s), how he was going to vote, he replied “I’m not voting.” When I asked him why, he said, “Likud used to be a party that helped out the poor; it is not anymore.” I’ll never vote for the left, but I’d rather not vote at all.”

Finally, our long time chazerit (housecleaner) came yesterday. When I asked her how she would vote, she replied: “For Bibi of course. Not that I love him, but at least he stands up to Obama; Herzog and Livni would be a disaster.”

These last 4 weeks of the campaign must see an aggressive push by all the parties on the right to generate some enthusiasm among all of the buve men, hashmalis, and ozerits of Israel.