The Israelstreet Pre-Mortem on the 2015 Election: Predictions

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UPDATES and TODAY’S BLOG: 

9:00 am Israel time, Wednesday, March 11 2015

6 Days Until The Election

Netanyahu speaking in front of Likud’s campaign sign which is plastered everywhere around the country. It reads “Only Likud, Only Netanyahu.” (Picture source Getty).

Sometimes you can just feel it in the air, sometimes you can hear it from others, and sometimes you can see it with your own eyes.

There is an undeniable buzz of energy in the air here in Israel for the Herzog-Livni party, and an undeniable fizzle of energy for the Likud of Benjamin Netanyahu. It is a buzz that your humble servant’s daughter spoke of several weeks ago after she returned home to Ashdod on the train from Tel Aviv.

I asked her who she thought was going to win the election. Without a moment’s hesitation, she replied “Herzog-Livni”. Surprised, since she is very “rightist” in her political views, I asked her why she thought so. She said it was very simple, “that’s all people are talking about on the train everyday.”

Last night, I saw it with my own eyes.

We were in Nes Ziona, a small but growing city between Rishon and Rehovot which happens to be where my wife’s parents live. At about 7 pm after dinner, we started back to Ashdod. But first, my wife–an ardent Netanyahu supporter–wanted to stop by Nes Ziona’s Likud campaign headquarters to get a sign to put on our house.

To get there, we first passed the side by side offices of Herzog-Livni and Yesh Atid (Lapid). Both offices, in the middle of town, had a festive mood with people standing in line to get in. When we finally got to the Likud headquarters on the outskirts of the city a few minutes later, the lights were off and nobody was there.

Here are the israelstreet predictions of what we will see when we wake up next Wednesday morning (in parentheses are the number of seats that each party has in the current Knesset):

Herzog-Livni: 27 or 28 seats (21: Labor 15 + Hatenua 6)

Likud: 18 or 19 seats (18)

Yesh Atid [Lapid]: 17 or 18 seats (19)

United Arab List: 13 or 14 seats (10)

Jewish Home [Bennett]: 12 or 13 seats (12)

Koolanu [Kahlon]: 11 or 12 seats (no seats: Koolanu is a new party)

Shas [Orthodox Sephardic]: 7 or 8 seats (11 seats: note that Shas split into what is now Shas and Yachad)

United Torah Judaism [Orthodox Ashkenazi]: 7 or 8 seats (7)

Meretz [ultra-left]: 6 or 7 seats (6)
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Yisrael Beiteinu [Lieberman]: 5 or 6 seats (13)

Yachad [nationalist offshoot of Shas]: 4 seats (see note beside Shas)

As overwhelming a victory as this looks like for Herzog-Livni, whether or not it can form a coalition will still probably come down to the Koolanu party. The burning question of the day is “Will Moshe Kahlon align his party with Herzog-Livni or with Likud?”

As recently as 5 days ago, Kahlon said that he would never be in a coalition with the Arab List. However, an inventive workaround will allow Kahlon to join a coalition headed by Herzog-Livni. As reported yesterday, the Arab List will recommend to President Rivlin that Herzog-Livni lead the government, but will not join its coalition.  Hence, Kahlon will be free to join Herzog-Livni. Reports this morning indicate that discussion between the parties has already begun.

Your humble servant predicts that since Kahlon has a decided dislike for Netanyahu, he will join Herzog and Livni, and they will head the next government.

Finally, having written all of this, we must remember that it is only Wednesday, and the election is not until 6 days from now.  Six days is a lifetime in Israel. In 1967, a decisive war was won in 6 days. A squadron of F 16s is flying over my house right now headed north.

Your humble servant is still fighting for the “Right” and will be in Tel Aviv this coming Sunday for a Rally for Israel. Next Monday, I will tell you whether I am voting for Bennett and Jewish Home, or Yachad and Baruch Marzel.

Two final notes:

1. As this campaign has dragged on, it has become all too apparent that Benjamin Netanyahu has made too many enemies.

Moshe Kahlon, who was once a prince of Likud, left the party in disgust over what he perceived as the failure of its social agenda and formed his own party Koolanu.

Gideon Sa’ar, who was once a prince of Likud, resigned from the party months ago when it was apparent that he was going nowhere fast. As your humble servant wrote back in December at the time of the Likud primaries, Likud’s victory in this election was dependent on Sa’ar replacing Netanyahu at the top of the Likud slate.

With Sa’ar and Kahlon at the helm, Likud would have cruised to victory in the election.

And whatever happened to the alliance between Netanyahu and Liberman? And why does Netanyahu continue attacking Bennett?

2. Benjamin Netanyahu and Likud have run a remarkably poor campaign.

The most popular members of the party such as Gilad Erdan and Miri Regev should have been out in front of the cameras and people everyday. Their pictures should have been on every Likud sign in the country.

Instead, what do we have everywhere?

A sign right out of Orwell’s 1984: big brother Bibi on a sign that says “Only Likud, only Netanyahu.”  Netanyahu took the Herzog-Livni bait and made the Likud campaign only about himself. And he will probably lose because of it.