Deconstructing the “Demographic Threat” To A Jewish, Democratic Israel

Tweet

UPDATES:

7 pm Israel time, Monday, June 8 2015

**Another day, more missile alarms–this time at 12:02 pm in the Ashkelon area again. The same old story from the IDF: it was a false alarm; maybe one missile exploded; Hamas did not fire anything.

**Speaking of the IDF, our southern commander Maj. Gen. Sami Turgeman gave a tongue-lashing of sorts last night to mayors of southern communities in the wake of the recent missile attack from Palestinians in Gaza. Turgeman told the officials that “Israel will not launch a military operation in Gaza in response to sporadic rocket attacks that strike open areas of southern Israel.”

Can you believe this? The IDF won’t do anything unless the missile attacks increase in frequency–and unless missiles begin hitting Israeli communities.

Who cares if Israeli men, women, and children have to spend their lives running to their bomb shelters? And who cares if Israelis suffer from continual trauma from the missile launches? Certainly not the IDF.

Pathetic.

**What did our so-called “Defense” Minister Moshe Ya’alon decide to do last night as the missile attacks continue?  He decided that Israel will open the Kerem Shalom and Erez border crossings from Israel into Gaza that were closed on Saturday night.

Unbelievable.

**Two Palestinians who threw pipe bombs at Israeli solders in Beit Jala near Bethlehem were shot and wounded last night.

TODAY’S BLOG:

As we all know, the “two-state solution” has been the holy mantra of all of those on the Israeli and international left since the onset of the Oslo Accords in 1993.

Just think about how many times you have heard each of the following:

“Israel cannot exist as a Jewish state unless there is a two-state solution.” 

“Without a two-state solution, Israel’s democratic values will disappear and Israel will become an apartheid state.”

At the core of these fraudulent statements is the fraudulent demographic myth–a myth that has been often addressed here on israelstreet. 

Just a few nights ago at a conference in Herzliya, Yitzhak Herzog of the recently failed Herzog-Livni party addressed the necessity of a quick peace deal with the Palestinians because of what he called Israel’s “demographic emergency”:

“Arabs will be a majority between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea within a decade. There will be 52% Arabs versus 48% Jews in the Jewish homeland. This will be the first time since 1948 that we will be a minority in our homeland.”

The sky is falling. The sky is falling. The sky is falling.

According to the prestigious Spine Journal, 2006; 6:591-694, forward head carriage causes accelerated degeneration of intervertebral joints viagra cheap price resulting in degenerative joint disease (cervical osteoarthritis) and osteoporosis. Normally fertility is not linked to age factor and buy uk viagra the prostate health is also not linked to fertility. Relaxation of this spongy muscle lets blood to dribble into the tiny cervices, making the muscle rigid and compresses small veins that drain blood away from purchase viagra online the equator. It rejuvenates fast shipping viagra reproductive organs and helps to regain lost youth.
Except that the sky is not falling and never has been.

First, let’s look for a moment at the geographical foundation of the two-staters’ demographic argument–namely that all of the land from the Jordan River to the Mediterranean Sea is “the Jewish homeland.”

Is there anyone in Israel or elsewhere who believes that Gaza is part of the Jewish homeland? Gaza is a Palestinian state of approximately 1.8 million people that has been completely governed by the Palestinians since 2005.

And what about Areas A and B of Judea and Samaria? Does anyone seriously argue that Jenin, Shechem, Tulkarm, or the H1 section of Hebron is part of the Jewish homeland? All of these areas have been governed by the Palestinians since 1993. No one knows what the population of Areas A and B are, but it is somewhere between 1.5 and 2.4 million.  But it doesn’t make any difference which number you choose: the point is that these areas are not part of Israel.

What percentage of the Palestinians live in Areas A, B, and Gaza? About 98%.

And that is where the two-state argument should end. Areas A, B, and Gaza are already de facto Palestinian states.

But second, let’s look at the population argument regarding Israel itself, the H2 (Israeli-controlled) area of Hebron, and Area C of Judea and Samaria. How many Arabs live in these areas?

There are about 1.7 million Israeli-Arabs living in Israel, 30,000 Arabs living in the H2 area of Hebron, and about 50,000 Arabs living in Area C.

In other words there are roughly 1.8 million Arabs in Israel, Hebron H2, and Area C.  

And what about Jews? How many Jews live in Israel, Area C, and in the H2 area of Hebron? More than 6.1 million.

6.1 million Jews and 1.8 million Arabs.

And what about the birth numbers that the two-staters always talk about? The number of Arab children born in Israel has stabilized over the last decade at about 37,000 per year while the number of Jewish children continues to increase dramatically–last year reaching more than 130,000. As for the birthrate, the Arab birthrate is now down to about 4 children per mother, while the Jewish birthrate has risen to more than 3 per mother.

Even a kindergarten mathematician can easily see that with birth numbers like these the number of Jews in Israel as a proportion of the population will continue to increase–while the number of Arabs in Israel as a proportion of the population will begin to significantly decrease.

In sum, the continual summoning of the demographic myth to perpetuate the necessity of “two state solution” idea is geographically and population-wise absurd particularly in light of the fact that (at the risk of repetition) Gaza along with areas A and B of Judea and Samaria are already de facto Palestinian states.

There is no existential demographic threat to a Jewish, democratic Israel.