The Devil Is In The Details

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28-29 Tivet 5780

25-26 January 2020

Photo of the Day

The International Sports Fishing Competition is currently underway in the Kineret (Sea of Galilee) with 25 teams from all over the world participating. This is the 11th year of the contest. All fishing is done from the beach, and all fish are returned to the lake after being weighed.

The Romanian team has caught the largest fish so far today:

A big carp caught this morning.

Isn’t it remarkable how amidst Palestinian terrorism, threats from Iran, and the upcoming political earthquake of the Trump Peace Plan, that life and fishing go on?

The News on the Israeli Street

Palestinian terror in the last 24 hours . . .

*Palestinian terrorists fired another missile into southern Israel this evening. No warning sirens were sounded as the missile apparently hit in “an open space.”

*Jerusalem (!), Kibbutz Erez, Sde Boker (!), Kibbutz Be’eri, south of Beit Shemesh: these were a few of the more than dozen places where explosive balloons have landed:

The explosive that landed near Sde Boker. Note that it is in the shape of an rpg.

Benny Gantz . . .

Benny Gantz, head of the Kahol Lavan Party, has decided to attend the meeting in Washington between President Trump and PM Netanyahu after all. He made a huge show leaving Ben Gurion Airport today as if he is the leader of Israel by going without a suitcase.

Without a suitcase?

The idea was apparently to show his disdain for having to go and his decision to not even stay overnight in Washington.

What he actually showed was his total irrelevance to what will happen in Washington in the next few days.

Prince Charles . . .

Prince Charles, following up on his meeting with PLO Chairman Abbas yesterday spent yesterday bemoaning the condition of “poor Palestinians”.

In Charles’ nauseating words: “It breaks my heart… that we should continue to see so much suffering.”

What a pompous buffoon.

Today’s Blog

The Devil Is In The Details

Three days ago we published what we believe is the general outline of President Trump’s Deal of the Century (you can read that blog here). In the last 72 hours, as PM Netanyahu heads to Washington to meet with Trump, more “apparent” details have leaked out.

We say “apparent” because we really will not know until we see those details released at the White House.

However, here are some more of the details which your humble servant believes are in the “deal”:

*It is a four year plan at the end of which Palestinians can declare a state (herein “New Palestine”) and receive $50 billion dollars in economic assistance . . .
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if the Palestinians disarm Gaza and disarm Areas A and B of Judea and Samaria–thereby creating a demilitarized “Palestinian state”;

if the Palestinians agree to let Israel control all border crossings and have aerial flyovers;

if the Palestinians agree to form no alliances with any other countries;

if the Palestinians recognize Israel as a Jewish state.

All of these conditions are non-starters for the PLO, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and other terror organizations.

———-

The land:

However, assuming that this “Palestinian state” is disarmed and the above conditions are met, then:

—the PLO will retain control over areas A and B of Judea and Samaria–approximately 40% of the entire area.

—as for the remaining 60%, Area C, the PLO will gain control over 70% of it (42% of Judea and Samaria).

To put this a different way, the PLO will end up with control over 82% of Judea and Samaria. That 82% and Gaza will form the “new Palestine.”

Israel will be left with 18% of Judea and Samaria–the 18% that contains almost all Jewish communities and the Jordan Valley. Israel will compensate the Palestinians with an equivalent amount of land in Israel.

All of this is a non-starter for the Palestinians who demand 100% of Judea and Samaria, and a non-starter for the Israeli “right” which demands keeping control of all of Area C.

Jerusalem:

—“New Palestine” will be able to have its capital in any Arab neighborhood such as Abu Dis that is on the other side of the security fence.

—Israeli Jews will not be allowed to buy property in eastern Jerusalem (though what is defined as “eastern Jerusalem” is unclear).

—“New Palestine” will share administration over Muslim holy sites with Israel.

—the city of Jerusalem will remain undivided with Israeli sovereignty over all areas on the Israeli side of the security fence including the Old City.

Most of these are non-starters for the Palestinians and elements of the above will be actively resisted by the Israeli “right.”.

Palestinian “refugees”

Apparently there is little to no mention of these so-called “refugees” who were the sticking points in the 2000 and 2007 Israeli peace offers. 

———-

Finally today, you might be asking yourself dear reader, what the point of the Trump Peace Plan is if we know that it will be rejected (and is already being rejected) out of hand by the Palestinians?

That is a good question. 

Is it to shore up Trump support among evangelical voters in the U.S.? Is it to move the goalposts as to what might happen in any future deal between the Palestinians and us?

Surely, Jared Kushner and Jason Greenblatt did not spend 3 years working on this plan to facilitate President Trump’s re-election. What the plan looks like is a sincere effort to recognize the realities on the ground and force the rest of the world to change the dynamics of the “peace process” by recognizing those realities.