5 Days Until The Election: Where Do Things Stand?

Yom Chamishee, Thursday

5 Nisan 5781

March 18, 2021

 

The Idiotic Action of the Day

Try to wrap your mind around this, dear reader. President Rivlin and IDF Chief of Staff are somewhat bizarrely junketing around Europe during this week before the election.

Today finds the twosome in Paris for talks with French President Emanuel Macron. In addition to discussing the Covid-19 situation, the meetings are expected to focus on Lebanon.

It is being reported that Lt. Gen. Kochavi is providing Macron with detailed “target maps” which show what Israel will strike in any future war with Hezbollah. While your humble servant has no doubt that the maps do not show every detail, just the fact that Kochavi would show Macron any maps is incomprehensible.

The maps are sure to get back to Hezbollah which will harden or move any sites that Israel would strike. 

Why in the world are we informing the enemy of our intentions?

 

The News On The Israeli Street

The daily Corona (Covid-19) update . . .

Please note that these numbers encompass from 8 pm Wednesday to 8 pm Thursday:

824,926 Israelis have been confirmed with the virus since the pandemic began last March.

There are 1,602 newly confirmed cases.

579 are in critical condition—an increase of 1

196 of the most critically ill are on ventilators—a decrease of 6

6,062 have died–an increase of 11

There are currently 24,003 active Corona cases.

The Bedouins expand their takeover . . .

For years, your humble servant has been reporting about the Bedouin takeover of the Negev. Every time we travel to Eilat (which is at least twice a year) we notice how the number of illegal Bedouin encampments continues to explode in the area between Beersheva-Dimona-Mitzpe Ramon.

Yesterday, the Regavim organization published statistics about Bedouin construction showing how Bedouin population growth is off the charts in another area–this one around Arad.

In 2005, there were 78 illegal Bedouin structures in the area; in 2015 there were 511; last year there were 961. All told, this is an increase of some 1200% in 15 years.

None of this illegal construction around Arad or in the Negev is secret. It is blatant, ongoing, and a threat to the state of Israel.

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TODAY’S BLOG

5 Days Until The Election:

Where Do Things Stand?

Here is the latest poll (from Network B) and one of the last we will see before tomorrow’s deadline on publishing polls:

Likud (Netanyahu) 31

Yesh Atid (Lapid) 21

Yamina (Bennett) 12

New Hope (Sa’ar) 10

Joint Arab List 9

Shas (Sephardic Orthodox) 8

Yisrael Beiteinu (Lieberman) 7

United Torah Judaism (Ashkenazi Orthodox) 7

Labor (Michaeli) 6

Religious Zionism (Smotrich) 5

Blue and White (Gantz) 4

If these were indeed the election results, where would it leave us?

The pro-Netanyahu group would have 51 seats (Likud 31, Shas 8, United Torah Judaism 7, Religious Zionism 5).

The anti-Netanyahu group would have 60 seats (Yesh Atid 21, Yamina 12, New Hope 10, Yisrael Beiteinu 7, Labor 6, Blue and White 4. However, this configuration is problematical because Yamina might not sit with Yesh Atid, or Yisrael Beiteinu, or Labor, or Blue and White). 

And what about the Joint Arab List? It is definitely anti-Netanyahu, but Yamina would definitely not join a coalition with it.

Your humble servant also suspects that Meretz, the ultra-left party in Israel, may actually cross the 3.25% threshold and gain 4 seats. It is of course strongly anti-Netanyahu. But would those 4 seats knock Blue and White out of the Knesset?

It is also possible that the RAAM,  the Islamist Arab-Israeli party led by Mansour Abbas that Netanyahu has been courting, could also wind up with 4 seats. How that would affect various coalitions is anyone’s guess.

An estimated 10% of the Israeli electorate remains undecided. Their votes may well tell the tale about the outcome of the election.