Lies, Damned Lies, Statistics, And Polls


23 Tevet 5779

31 December 2018

 

End Of The Year Population Statistics

As 2018 comes to an end in a few hours in Israel, the Central Bureau of Statistics released the following numbers today:

8,972,000: the number of people living in Israel

6,668,000: the number of Jews living in Israel (74.3%)

1,878,000: the number of Arabs living in Israel (20.9%)

426,000: the number of “others” living in Israel (4.8%)

185,000: the number of babies born in Israel in 2018

 

The News On The Street In Israel

The IDF has released end of the year statistics . . .

During the year:

1000 Hamas rockets and mortar shells fired into Israel (this is a gross understatement)

865 Hamas installations were attacked by the IDF (mostly empty buildings and sand dunes)

15 Hamas tunnels were destroyed (not really destroyed, just temporarily disabled)

2,057 “rock” attacks were carried out by Palestinian terrorists in Judea and Samaria (this number is absurd: with a minimum of 20 such attacks everyday, the number is minimally 7,300)

893 Molotov attacks occurred in Judea and Samaria (this is also absurd: with a minimum of 5 such attacks everyday, the number is minimally 1,825)

33 shooting attacks were carried out by Palestinian terrorists (again, a gross understatement)

17 stabbing attacks were perpetrated by Palestinian terrorists (correct)

3,173 Palestinian terrorists were captured and arrested.

Grandfather Netanyahu . . .

While PM Netanyahu and his wife Sarah were being wined and dined in Brazil the past few days, the prime minister became a grandfather for the fourth time–again from his daughter Noa.

Noa is the daughter of Netanyahu and Netanyahu’s first wife, Dr. Miki Haran. She is ultra-orthodox and lives in Mea Shearim with her husband, Rabbi Daniel Roth. She and her husband already had two sons and a daughter.  The newest Roth is another granddaughter. 

Mazeltov!

Palestinian “justice” is dispensed . . .

Remember the case of the Palestinian-American who was captured by PLO “security forces” in Ramallah in early October. He was then locked away in a Palestinian prison whereabouts unknown.

Yesterday, Akel Issam was convicted in Ramallah of “attempting to sever parts of Palestinian land and annex it to a foreign state” (aka “selling land to Jews). He was sentenced to life in prison with hard labor.

Where is the international outcry that would have occurred if Israel had arrested an Israeli and chucked him in prison for life for selling land to Palestinians?

Nowhere to be heard.

A radical transformation in Israeli food shopping . . .

The online shopping craze has hit Israel. Every major supermarket chain is now offering cheap deals on food, and quick delivery.

The cost of an average “food basket of essential foods” ranges 205 shekels to 246 shekels with a delivery fee of 30 shekels. Delivery time ranges from 3 to 4 hours:

A comparison:

Rami Levy Supermarkets: average basket price 205 NIS + 30 NIS shipping fee, the closest delivery time will be 4 hours.

Victory Supermarkets: average basket price is NIS 220 + NIS 30 shipping, delivery time is close to 3.5 hours.

Shufersal: average basket price 246 NIS + 30 NIS shipping fee, delivery time closest to your home up 3 hours.

Poverty decreases in Israel, but the poor get poorer . . .

According to the National Insurance Institute, 466,400 Israeli families were living in poverty in 2017 (the most recent year for which statistics are available). These families include 1,780,500 children.

Obviously, as the ultra-orthodox population increases in Israel so does the incidence of poverty (because many of the ultra-orthodox do not work).

All in all, the overall poverty rate declined by 0.3%, but the depth of poverty as measured by the income of those “in poverty” increased by 10%.

The pork battles continues . . .

As usual, the Israel Supreme Court waded into another battle yesterday, this time regarding the importation of pork into the country. You will recall that we reported here on israelstreet last week that Agriculture Minister Uri Ariel had banned all importation of pork.

The Supreme Court overruled Ariel, prompting him to issue this statement: 

“Unfortunately, the court cooperates with the damage to the foundations of the Jewish state. It can not be that until the final decision of the court  will allow the importation of pork instead of banning it. These decisions are eroding our Jewish identity and severely injuring religious feelings. I will continue to act to prevent any entry of pork to the country.”

 
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TODAY’S BLOG:

Lies, Damned Lies, Statistics, and Polls

When the date of the new election was first announced last week, your humble servant remarked that we would all now be exposed to three months of fake election polls.

Yesterday we were inundated with the first batch. Generally we will not be reporting on every poll that appears, but perhaps we will will give an update every month.

As you look at the polls below, remember that a party must win 4 seats (3.25% in order to have representatives in the Knesset).

The numbers given below are from 4 polls, in order: Makor Rishon, Channel 2, Channel 10, Kan. In other words, the Makor Rishon poll gives Likud 25, Channel 2 gives Likud 28, Channel 10 gives Likud 30, and Kan gives Likud 27.

Likud (Netanyahu)

25, 28, 30, 27

Resilience for Israel (Gantz–supposedly center-right)

15, 14, 14, 13

The New Right (Shaked and Bennett)

14, 6, 8, 14

Arab Joint List

12, 12, 13, 12

Yesh Atid (Lapid–supposedly centrist)

10, 12, 11, 16

Labor (aka leftist Zionist Union: Gabbay and Livni)

9, 9, 8, 9

United Torah Judaism (Ashkenazi ultra-orthodox)

7, 7, 7, 7

Kulanu (supposedly centrist)

4, 6, 6, 7

Gesher (Orly Levi–generally “right-wing”)

4, 5, 5, 5

Meretz (ultra left-wing)

5, 6, 5, 6

Shas (Sephardic Ultra-Orthodox)

5, 6, 5, 4

Yisrael Beiteinu (Liberman)

5, 5, 4, 3

Jewish Home 

5, 4, 3, 4

What can we glean from the above?

1. Jewish Home and Yisrael Beiteinu are in serious danger of not achieving the threshhold and not having any representatives in the Knesset. If this happens, it would be a disastrous loss of votes for the “right.”

2. Compared to the current composition of the Knesset, the polls are a disaster for the Labor Party which would lose approximately 15 seats from its current 24, and Kulanu which would lose approximately 4 from its current 10. 

3. The three new parties Resilience, New Right, and Bridge are all attracting a substantial followingthough how can one explain how the New Right could have 14 in two polls and 6 in another?

4. Likud seems to be trending downward. From a high in polling several months ago of 32, one poll has it as low as 25.

5. The two most stable parties seem to be the United Arab List and United Torah Judaism. There is no current sign of the United Arab List being threatened by the new Arab party.

Speaking of the new Arab party, one of the most significant problems with Israeli polls is that they do not include the smaller parties in their results. For example, in the 2015 elections, Yachad, a party on the far right, narrowly missed gaining enough votes to meet the threshold. The leaders of that party complained bitterly that they probably did not make it because the party was never mentioned in any poll.

This entry was posted in News and tagged at the Halhul bridge, election, Israel, likud, polls, selling land to Jews, the New Right, the number of arabs living in israel, the number of jews living in israel, the number of people living in israel. Bookmark the permalink.

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