Russia and Iran: Sitting in the Catbird Seat


UPDATES 

9:00 am Israel time, Tuesday, September 8 2015

**The daily Palestinian terror report . . .

Regular readers of israelstreet undoubtedly tire of reading the neverending litany of Palestinian terrorism that takes place everyday here, yet it is a litany that you will read nowhere in the mainstream media in your country. How many of the following items have you seen from yesterday? Does the international media ever report any of these incidents?

Palestinians rioted  in A-Ram, Silwan, Issawiya, Duma, and near Gush Etzion.

Palestinian terrorists threw Molotov cocktails in the A-Tur and Ras Al-Amud neighborhoods of Jerusalem. In the latter attack which occurred just before 11 pm, six Molotov cocktails were thrown at Israelis.

Palestinian terrorists threw IEDs at an IDF patrol near Rachel’s Tomb outside of Bethlehem.

Palestinian terrorists threw “rocks” at Israeli motorists near Gilad in Samaria (5:20 pm), Mount Hebron (6:08 pm), and at Talmon (9:33 pm). 

Please note that all of the above occurred between 5:20 pm and 11:20 pm. There were tens of other Palestinian attacks during the day.

TODAY’S BLOG:

The wars continue along Israel’s borders.

The Egyptian Army reports that it killed 29 “militants” in the Sinai overnight. The Egyptians use the word “militants” to describe Muslim Brotherhood/Hamas terrorists as well as IS/Al Qaeda terrorists.

But the larger story at the moment is what is happening in Syria.

Note that from southern Lattakia province, the Russians can control the air over Syria.

Note that from southern Lattakia province, the Russians can control the air over Syria–not to mention Lebanon.

It is a story that changes by the hour. For example, in the last few hours, IS has taken the final oilfield in possession of the Assad regime at Jazal north of Palmyra (in central Homs province on map above), only to have it retaken by Assad’s forces after fierce fighting.  On the Syrian-Lebanese border, a Hezbollah general was killed in fighting yesterday.

However, the most significant development of the last few days has been the massive influx of Russian forces into the area–particularly the arrival of the Russian Air Force with air to air missiles. The Russians are already in the midst of planning and building a new Russian Air Force base in the Lattakia province (see map above). 

As most israelstreet readers realize, the Israel Air Force has freedom of the skies over Syria and Lebanon–and hardly a day or even an hour goes by when it does not exercise that freedom.

When the IAF bombs a Hezbollah convoy moving Syrian weapons into Lebanon or bombs IS positions around Druze towns in southern Syria or hits terrorists traveling in vehicles with missiles or strikes Syrian army positions following missile attacks on the Israel Golan Heights, it can virtually do so at will.

Now, it would appear that all of that is going to change.

To summarize, what can we now expect:

1. Israeli planes and Russian planes may come into conflict with each other.

2. Assad’s position will improve. Russian planes will protect his forces and attack “the rebels” with far greater force than before.

3. Hezbollah forces and the Iranian Revolutionary Guards will be strengthened. Obviously, the Russians are providing cover not only for Syria but also for Hezbollah and Iran.

4. Russia and Iran will bond ever more closely. Russia is already selling Iran S-300 missiles to shoot down possible Israeli planes. With the Russian Air Force in Syria, any Israeli air attack on Iranian nuclear facilities has gone from “virtually impossible” to “suicidal.”

5. The balance of power in the Middle East further shifts.  With huge arms sales to Egypt and now a new Russian air base in Syria to with its naval port at Latakia, the Russians are sitting in the catbird seat along with Iran.

A final thought: as many have noted, these changes are looking more and more as what the objective of Obama foreign policy was all along–a bizarre foreign policy that looks upon Iran as a stabilizing force in the Middle East, and a foreign policy that lacks the will to confront Russian expansionism anywhere.

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