The IDF’s Bleak Assumptions About the Coming War With Hezbollah


14 Elul 5777

6 September 2017

 

The News on the Israel Street

Palestinian terror in the last 24 hours . . .

*There was an attempted bulldozer attack at the Tapuach Junction last night in which a terrorist attempted run over a hitchhiker. Fortunately the hitchhiker was unhurt. The terrorist escaped.

*Azariya, Tekoa, Gush Etzion, the Abud Bypass Road, Migalot, the Tapuach Junction, Beit Ummar, Nebi Saleh, Yatta, Road 6, Road 443: these were 10 of the some 30 locations where terror attacks occurred yesterday.

*Overnight, security forces captured 13 terrorists throughout Judea and Samaria and uncovered weapons-making factories in Araba and Al-Mu’ayir.

What a transportation change in Jerusalem! . . .

It may not seem much to those of you who do not have to navigate Jerusalem’s seemingly endless narrow streets and traffic lights, but the opening of the Begin Road tomorrow–20 years after construction on it began–reshapes the landscape of the city.

For the first time, a motorist will be able to move from south to north and vice versa from one end of the city to the other without encountering a traffic light!

The main part of the road runs from the Ben Zion Netanyahu (named for the PM’s father) interchange in the northern section of the city to the new Rosemary interchange in the southern part of the city.

Russia moves to defend its Iranian ally in Syria . . .

During the last few days it has been reported that the Russians have built an AH-400 missile base in Hama province. The missile base “happens” to be positioned next to an Iranian missile factory in which the Iranians are producing uranium-tipped missiles.

The HA-400 system is being put up to stop Israel from destroying the missile factory. Effective at a range of 400 km, the HA-400 can shoot down ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, drones, and fighter planes.

Other Iranian missile factories and Russian missile defense systems are going up in at least 3 other locations in Syria. The day is coming soon when Israel will be forced to take out the Russian systems in order to get to the Iranian missile factories. 

 
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TODAY’S BLOG:

The IDF’s Bleak Assumptions About the Coming War With Hezbollah

With the continuing deterioration of the situation in Syria and Lebanon, the IDF is conducting its largest military exercise in the north in decades.

This exercise is premised on five bleakly realistic IDF assumptions about the next war with Hezbollah:

1. The war will come from two directions: Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hezbollah and Iran in Syria.

2. The Israel home front will be hit harder than ever before. “Home front” includes all of Israel because Hezbollah missiles can hit the entire country with precision.  The number of civilian casualties will be extremely high as will the damage to our infrastructure.

3. Israel’s interception systems will not provide protection against the projected Hezbollah missile onslaught of 100,000+ missiles.

4. Citizens of the north (and perhaps other areas to the south) will be forced to spend the duration of the war in bomb shelters.

5. To stop the missile onslaught, Israel will be forced to quickly knock out the infrastructure of Lebanon and western Syria including roads, power grids, water supplies. and other elements. The war will be a very “dirty” one.

6. To knock out the infrastructure will require massive IAF firepower and a massive number of IDF troops on the ground in Lebanon and Syria. It is expected that IDF casualties will be high.

All in all, the picture is bleak. In order to stop ourselves from being destroyed, we will be forced to destroy much of Lebanon and western Syria. 

The last Lebanon War was bad; this next one will be immeasurably worse. 

 

 

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