7:00 pm Israel time, Friday, January 30 2015
45 Days Until The Election
***Terrorism has struck Egypt heavily in the last 24 hours with nearly 40 civilians and soldiers killed in attacks from El Arish to Alexandria. Who are the terrorists perpetrating the attacks? All signs point to an alliance of Al-Qaeda, IS, and the Muslim Brotherhood.
Remarkably but not surprisingly, guess who is hosting a group of leaders of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood this week?
If you guessed the Barack Obama and John Kerry U.S. State Department, you are exactly correct. On the one hand, the State Department is forking out American taxpayer money to court the Muslim Brotherhood, and on the other it is funding the effort to defeat Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel.
***The IDF continues wreaking havoc among Jewish communities in Judea and Samaria. The latest location on “Defense” Minister Moshe Ya’alon’s hit list was Givat Gal which is located between Hebron and Kiryat Arba.
***Hamas continues firing “test missiles” into the Mediterranean at a dizzying pace–averaging between five and ten per day. Today, Hamas terrorists fired 13 missiles into the sea–and apparently into Gaza because of misfires.
At the same time, Hamas military camps are operating nonstop with 17,000 young men having completed their “operational training” so far.
***Not coincidentally, the last 24 hours have seen a number of bellicose statements coming out Hezbollah head Nasrallah in Beirut, and the Iranian military in Tehran.
Speaking of Beirut, the news from the Lebanese government today is that IS now controls 5% of Lebanon.
Israel’s election line-up is now finally set with 26 political parties vying for seats in the next Knesset. Of these 26, eleven (or twelve) parties are likely to be able to garner enough votes to meet the requisite 3.25% threshold–which will give them the minimum of 4 seats.
Here are the parties in order of the most recent poll that came out this morning (the poll numbers are from the centrist Jerusalem Post poll):
Likud: Netanyahu: 25 . . . trending up
“Zionist Union”: Herzog and Livni: 24 . . . trending down
Jewish Home: Bennett: 14 . . . trending down
Joint Arab List: 12 . . . holding steady
Yesh Atid: Yair Lapid: 11 . . . trending up
United Torah Judaism (Askenazi Orthodox): 8 . . . holding steady
Koolanu: Moshe Kahlon: 8 . . . trending down
Shas (Separdic Orthodox): 7 . . . trending up
Meretz (ultra-left): 6 . . . holding steady
Yisrael Beiteinu (Lieberman): 5 . . . trending down
The Jerusalem Post poll is not without problems. For example, the last minute new party formed by a merger of Eli Yishai and the Jewish Power Party is not taken into account–and some polls a few days ago show it winning as many as 7 seats.
And what do the numbers mean? Not much.
Three days ago, most polls had Herzog and Livni up by two to three seats–and beginning to pull away. Then the Hezbollah ambush on the border took place and Likud vaulted into first. Who knows what will happen tomorrow?
Also, the unrelenting media campaign against Netanyahu and his family may begin to take its toll. The attack on Sara Netanyahu has reached new depths in the last three days with pathetic accusations that she has been pocketing money from recycled bottles used at the Netanyahu residence–money that Netanyahu’s critics claim should have been turned over to the state.
From your humble servant’s perspective, the most disappointing trend is the drop in the numbers of Jewish Home. This is undoubtedly the result of Naftali Bennett’s blunder of trying to place non-religiously observant former soccer player Eli Ohana on the Jewish Home list. Hopefully, Jewish Home’s numbers will begin to recover in the coming weeks.
Finally, what does all of this bode for the next government? Another coalition will have to be formed–and parties like Koolanu, United Torah Judaism, and Shas will hold the balance of power.
One last note: from now until the election, israelstreet will only report on polls each Friday.